Thank you for all of your excellent information. POSTED AT 2:25 PM CT TUESDAY: Ok, everybody. The “cooler” water is largely irrelevant because Laura is crossing it relatively quickly from a perpendiclar direction (won’t be over it long enough to upwell enough cool water), GOES-East – Sector view: Gulf of Mexico The performance of the Navy model (NAVGEM) and NOAA’s GFS, HWRF, and HMON models lagged behind. lol Seriously, I really appreciate your dedication and honesty. Thanks again for your honesty and always excellent analysis. Laura was headed west-northwest at 21 mph with top sustained winds of 60 mph and a central pressure of 1001 mb. Very strange discrepancy. Many have faith in your good work. How much of the realignment is due to what the models have been outputting and how much is due to Laura’s wobble? The home they ran from was just fine. The National Hurricane Center anticipates the storm will undergo most intensification between this evening and Thursday morning.

The European model is the one that consistently outperforms the GFS model run by NOAA according to The National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification report. Add me to the chorus of thanking Eric and Matt for these updates. Thank you so much for your hard work! The UKMET model’s 0Z Monday forecast predicted a landfall southwest of Houston, Texas, around 8 p.m. EDT Wednesday as an intensifying hurricane. We aren’t sick of it, you guys are helping me prepare and getting me through the day! Been following you (and now Matt) since Katrina/Rita. Instead, storm surge and wind are most likely to be the greatest threats posed by Laura. They’ve basically already said they don’t think it will go west of Galveston Island. Update: the 12Z  Monday run of UKMET model had a landfall location near the Texas/Louisiana border, more in line with the official NHC forecast. Forum European Centre for Medium-Range Weather European Model Long Range 1 through 10 Days Animated This is an interesting animation for a 10 day period. God Laura is the earliest L-named storm in the Atlantic Basin, breaking a record held by Luis, which formed Aug. 29, 1995. We’ve just really got to keep tabs on this one, Houston. I could hardly wait for this post! Thanks, Eric and Matt: We evacuated from Clear Lake to Waco and will be glad we did so regardless of where the storm ultimately comes ashore. Marco’s center of circulation continued to head toward the Louisiana coast, but with virtually no showers and thunderstorms around it. Thanks! NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. Interesting that the Marco swirl is still visible on the satellite loops. If it shifts… good on the NHC . It isn’t. Marco is no longer expected to generate a significant storm surge. Thank you for hanging in with US! Tropical Storm Marco, which was briefly a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday in the southern Gulf of Mexico, no longer poses a serious threat to the U.S. coast after being ripped apart by strong wind shear on Monday. Can you predict when the locusts will arrive? Thank you! Evacuate immediately if so ordered. Thank you, gentlemen!! Anything available online? Broke my heart to see the pictures of Ike’s aftermath. Expect 'tropical' weather from Gulf storms, forecasters say, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. The storm ripped apart buildings and hundreds of thousands are without power. Upper level, not so much, at least last time I checked which was a couple hours ago. Unexpected weakening would be nice to hear However, and this is very important, this track is far from dialed in. Please enable cookies on your web browser in order to continue. , If you follow TWC’s track, the storm has been heading significantly more northwest than west, and it seems the models keep wanting it to go west but in reality it has been tracking more north. Hope this misses us, but I’m 90 miles off the coast and began preparing last week when you guys said to think about doing so. Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email. No need for that literal noise. Same here, Matt and Eric.

You’ve no doubt read it before, so skip it if it sounds familiar: don’t get too hung up on the exact center line of the path at this point. Marco’s small size made it especially vulnerable to the destructive effects of shear and dry air. At 2 p.m. EDT Monday, Laura was located over the waters south of west-central Cuba, about 60 miles from the island. High-level cirrus clouds were streaming out to the south, indicating good upper-level outflow on that side, but it was more restricted to the north than it had been on Sunday. Trying to decide whether to evacuate my handicapped mom. Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting comments. I’m 73 miles west of Houston in Colorado County. Thanks for your update. You guys are essential! Given the potential for further, modest swings in the track, we’re asking you to hang with us for another day or so. With the wind threat should we be considering boarding up windows if we are in the Pearland area? Laura is expected to be a major hurricane. Then I put the gas in the cars once the season ends. Wonder where they got their superior “data,” a “Magic 8-Ball?”.



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